2010 Mid-Term Danger For Dems, Not From the Right

Ezra Klein points to an excellent analysis of the dangers Democrats face in the 2010 mid-term elections, if they fail to pass substantial health care reform. He discusses a comment by James Morone, co-author of a new book on the health care battle. Mr. Morone points out that the real danger for Democrats in an off year election is not rage from motivated conservatives, but rather apathy from disheartened Democrats.

What really happened back in 1994? The Republican base — jubilant, mobilized and angry — turned out. The Democratic base — dispirited, disenchanted and demobilized — stayed home. As Democrats ponder which way to go in this latest round, they ought to read the political lessons more carefully: Short-term electoral success rests with the base, the people who got excited about "change we can believe in." Long-term electoral success rests in designing and pushing through a program that then grows very popular.

As one of those who was excited by change we can believe in, I know first hand the disappointment, and disgust I feel watching what is happening in Washington on this issue. Seeing milquetoast Democrats like Nelson, Conrad, and Baucus, cave to the medical insurance lobby has been appalling. Even more disappointing has been the lack of leadership on this issue from the President. Once again, we have let the right wing noise machine frame the debate with misinformation, and with help from the media have let phrases like "death panels' become all that low information voters know.

If we cannot pass an effective health plan with solid Democratic majorities, a Democratic president, and economy in shambles, and 48 million uninsured, I don't think I will ever be able to believe in "change" again. That does not mean I will be voting Republican. It does mean, however, that I will not be knocking on doors, making phone calls, or raising money for candidates. I will vote because that is what I do. I can easily see, however, and readily understand, that many of those who worked alongside me in last years election, may not even bother to show up at the polls.

Of course, if the Democrats do lose big next year, the media will narrative will not blame progressive apathy. It will be fault Democratic overreach, liberals gone too far.

I am beginning to think the Republicans were right about one thing. Perhaps Hilary was the one with the "cojones".